MNS put up a candidate in 11 constituencies - 6 in Bombay District, 3 in Thane District (Thane, Kalyan, Bhivandi) and one each in Pune and Nashik. Other than the Kalyan PC, the NDA (SHS+BJP) couldn't manage any other seat - a fact obviously attributed to the fact that Raj Thackrey had some issues with his cousin.
Some numbers are shown below:
Quick Observations:
The NDA was massively affected in the PCs in which MNS contested.
MNS contested 11. Won 0. Second in 2. Third in 9.
SHS contested 06. Won 1. Second in 3. Third in 2.
BJP contested 05. Won 0. Second in 5.
The margins of defeat for Kirit Somaiya (Mum NE) and Ram Naik (Mum N) [both BJP] were heart wrenching. Infact, in 7 of the 10 seats the NDA lost, the margin of defeat was less than the votes polled for MNS. (Combined voteshare is the 2nd last column). Hence the following questions arise:
Q1. Did the MNS solely eat from the Sena BJP vote bank?
Q2. Would the absence of the MNS candidate have resulted in NDA taking these 7 seats?
Q3. How did the MNS become such a force to reckon with? Is its Son of the Soil movement find takers across the urban landscape?
Fact: In the Municipal Elections in Mumbai, Thane and Pune about an year back MNS showed no dent in the Sena votes. All wards together about 400k votes went the MNS way in BMC polls '08. However this election MNS managed 800k votes in the 6 Mumbai Seats.
Fact: The semi-urban seats of Palghar, Maval, Raigad, Baramati, Shirur and Shirdi (seen above) in the Mumbai-Pune-Nashik triangle, where the MNS had no candidate - were dominated by NDA. (Other than the fiefdom of Baramati, ALL the other 5 were bagged by Sena + 1 Indp)Q4. Raj Thackrey claims Sena should be satisfied that he didn't have candidates in other parts of the state, else a similar fate awaited them. How true would this claim be?
Remarks:
1. There is little to substitute good work. Priya Dutt, Milind Deora and Eknath Gaikwad were known to have worked well. They romped home clear - MNS or no MNS.
South Mumbai (Lalbaug, Parel, Dadar, Matunga - all supposed Sena / MNS strangleholds - lie in their domain. Though Assembly wise splits aren't available yet, I suspect each Assembly seat has to be favorable to win by wide margins.)
2. I defined a rough metric for a good candidate. I prefer a
- Younger Candidate,
- A more educated candidate and
- One with less Criminal Cases against him.
An interesting observation is seen:
In 10 of the 11 constituencies, MNS candidate were atleast as good as the NDA one. In 6 cases the difference was significant (2 or more). Again, in 6 seats the MNS candidate fared better than even the UPA candidate - on this metric.
A lot of people around me voted MNS looking at the individuals.
Raj's choice of candidates, IMO, was a significant reason for votes going to MNS way. Explains the meteoric rise of MNS from the BMC elections an year ago - where Sena and MNS had similar candidates.
3. Although I don't have handy data to prove this, I have a hunch that the NDA + MNS vote share this election is significantly higher than the NDA share in the last election. Which means that people came to the MNS fold from places other than the NDA. Given that, both SP and BSP had a poorer showing in Mah. this time around, it would seem that those votes would fall to UPA. They mostly did - but maybe some voted MNS.
My Conclusion:
- It was a smart choice of candidates that helped Raj more than anything else. Sena giving tickets to equally notorious fellas didn't help them. Both could learn a lesson.
- In atleast 3 places though UPA vote share is far less than their wins reflect. Given that UPA otherwise crumbled in the Pune Nashik Mumbai triangle, they should thank their stars.
15 comments:
Good Analysis.
you r a really well informed and concerned citizen!! my family couldn't vote this yr coz our house din exist in the electoral list after we shifted residence last yr:P neways happy wid d result
The game has now begun! When I asked Parkar about upcoming Assembly polls, simple answer: aatashi lagna zalay, honeymoon la vel aahe..
In every constituency, they have got over a lakh votes, at the North Central, people were tensed when Shilpa Sarpotdar was leading
The reason why most elderly citizens ended up voting was that they actually believed in MNS and dint think it was a lost cause.
Good analysis.
@Devshree: Thanks :)
@Shubhi: (If in Mah.) Assembly elections are round the corner. You can vote then if you move quickly.
@yashshri: If Uddhav is adjusting, he will let them constitute in atleast 50 Assembly seats -- which I think wouldn't fit (and prolly is bad) for the SHS, long term.
Marathi people will now feel guilt for Voting for MNS
hahhaha:D
hey, nice analysis..too much of a work for a sunday afty though.. :)
btw, do u have a link which gives area wise voting percentage?n not by d entire constituency..
@BS: The whole point of my post was to drive home the fact that MNS candidates were infact better - which is why they got votes. So I really don't think that theres any guilt involved.
@mallika:Thanks :) I have it for 2004, but this years' split will come in a few days.
I disagree with voting for the candidate and not the party. Would have made sense if we were directly selecting the cabinet ministers. If tomm Mayawati gave ticket to a double phd in economics and political science, surely doesnt mean I would vote for him
just to reiterate, I think voting for an alleged money launderer from Congress/BJP makes more sense to me than an honest independent if it is going to result in keeping the likes of Left, Mayawati, Lalu etc from being the king-makers
nice analysis..
However, i fail to agree that the votes MNS got were merely because of they had good candidates. Considering the fact that the party had made its ideology crystal clear, no one would vote for its candidate if he disagrees with it.
But I agree with you on the point that the MNS may not necessarily have ate into NDAs vote alone.
I don't think giving tickets to better candidates had much impact on MNS vote share. The chunk of MNS vote came from a lower middle class marathi manoos, who stays in 1 room kitchen apartment, travels in 2nd class of local train and sings bhajans while traveling.
There is a growing frustration in lower middle class marathi juntax and perception that they are losing out on opportunities due to immigration from other states in Maharashtrian cities. And that had such a strong impact on voting tendency that candidate records were not of much significance. This is not the class who will not vote for a candidate just because he/she has criminal background etc.
As far as BMC elections are concerned, MNS clearly did not have agenda, strong identity that time. They made their ideology clear within last 1 year with strategic and violent campaign against North Indians.
In fact, that campaign must have been outcome of poor performance in BMC elections which established Uddhav as a leader and poll manager.
So it seems unlikely that MNS men roped in votes on individual abilities. Party agenda was a clear winner for them.
Hey Shantanu. Good analysis and all which is not much of a surprise considering that you can be analytically very sound about almost anything in general. In my opinion, politics should not be fully understood just through mathematical logic rather it also incorporates the knowledge of social, psychological, philosophical and other aspects of the society. For example, the ground reality of most MNS activists in very different. I didn't believe that they were really a group of extremists, till I came across a friend who MNS people hit with bamboos and "played" a little with his girlfriend on Valentine's Day. Also, in the many Shivsena Mumbai Bands, I have seen innocent people suffer. So, pardon me dear, when I say that a holistic view is very necessary for forming an opinion in politics and it hurts me to see that a lot of us (IITians) are taking a sudden, almost glamorous, interest in politics. If one really wants to do politics (by supporting a particular party etc.) then I would suggest that they go and try to work at the ground level. Seriously, no offense intended, but to be a real politicians you need to understand how the collective sociology really works.
Good analysis. Let us see what happens in the upcoming assembly elections.
http://election.rediff.com/slide-show/2009/may/19/slide-show-1-will-raj-thackeray-make-an-impact-in-assembly-elections.htm
The Rediff article says that ONLY Priya Dutt was not affected
I agree with Anchit - party ideology matters the most for national elections. I'm really not sure if MPs or MLAs actually do work for their constituencies. But I can say one thing for sure - if all those "good candidates" won in the elections, then MNS would play an important role in the final government formation. That means no matter how good your local MP is, we can imagine what would ensue in trying to keep the MNS within a coalition for 5 years.
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